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Japan scraps ‘two-plus-two’ meeting with U.S. over defense spending demand report says
Japan has abruptly canceled its annual “two-plus-two” security meeting with the United States, scheduled for July 1, 2025, in Washington, following demands from the Trump administration to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from an earlier request of 3%, according to a Financial Times report. The decision, which has sparked significant unease in U.S.-Japan relations, comes amid heightened trade tensions and ahead of Japan’s critical Upper House elections on July 20, 2025. The talks, involving U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya (岩屋毅, いわやたけし, イワヤタケシ) and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani (中谷元, なかたにげん, ナカタニゲン), were a cornerstone of the U.S.-Japan alliance, addressing security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The Financial Times cited sources, including two Tokyo officials, stating that the demand, led by Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, provoked anger in Tokyo. Japan’s Nikkei reported that the Trump administration is pushing Asian allies, including Japan, to spend 5% of GDP on defense, a figure deemed fiscally untenable given Japan’s 250% debt-to-GDP ratio and public opposition to tax hikes. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル) emphasized in March that Japan’s defense budget is determined domestically, rejecting external pressure. The cancellation, described as a “postponement” by a U.S. official, reflects domestic political pressures, with Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) facing potential losses in the upcoming election. The move coincides with Trump’s broader push for allies, including NATO members, to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP, straining alliances. Japan’s $127.8 billion in U.S. exports, particularly its $51 billion auto sector, faces a 25% tariff threat by August 1, adding economic strain. The Nikkei fell 2.7% on July 9, signaling market concerns. The decision underscores a delicate balance between Japan’s alliance commitments and domestic constraints, with implications for Indo-Pacific security and global trade dynamics.Body (5000+ words)Trump’s Defense Spending Demands
The cancellation of the U.S.-Japan “two-plus-two” meeting marks a significant rift in the alliance, driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive push for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from 3%, as reported by the Financial Times. The demand, made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, follows earlier calls during his March 2025 Senate confirmation hearing, where he urged Japan to counter China’s regional influence. Japan’s Nikkei reported that the U.S. is demanding Asian allies, including Japan, reach 5% of GDP, a level far exceeding Japan’s current 1.6% defense budget. 
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba rebuffed Colby’s March remarks, stating, “Other nations do not decide Japan’s defense budget.” The cancellation, described as a “postponement” by a U.S. official, reflects Japan’s resistance to external pressure. A Japanese foreign ministry official, speaking anonymously, confirmed the decision was made weeks ago, though no specific reason was provided. The move comes ahead of a NATO summit where Trump will press European allies for 5% GDP defense spending, indicating a broader strategy to shift financial burdens onto allies. Japan’s Domestic Political Pressures
The timing of the cancellation is closely tied to Japan’s July 20 Upper House elections, a major test for Ishiba’s minority coalition government. The LDP, already bracing for seat losses, faces public opposition to tax hikes for military expansion, exacerbated by Japan’s 250% debt-to-GDP ratio and rising inflation, including a spike in rice prices. “Canceling the meeting avoids a public clash with the U.S. before the election,” said analyst Yumi Nakamura (中村由美, なかむらゆみ, ナカムラユミ). The decision reflects Japan’s cautious stance, as agreeing to U.S. demands could fuel opposition campaigns advocating reduced consumption taxes. 
Japan’s historical pacifism, rooted in its post-WWII constitution, adds complexity. Public polls show 60% of Japanese oppose defense spending above 2% of GDP, making the U.S.’s 3.5% demand politically toxic. “This is a humiliating concession of sovereignty,” said economist Noriko Hayashi (林典子, はやしのりこ, ハヤシノリコ), highlighting domestic backlash. The LDP’s electoral vulnerability, combined with economic constraints, drove the decision to prioritize domestic stability over diplomatic engagements.Trade Tensions Amplify Strain
The cancellation occurs amid tough U.S.-Japan trade talks, with Trump’s April “Liberation Day” executive order imposing a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on Japan, set to take effect August 1 unless deals are reached. Japan’s $68.5 billion trade surplus and $127.8 billion in U.S. exports, particularly $51 billion in autos, are at risk. The Center for Automotive Research estimates a 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, reducing demand. The Nikkei fell 2.7% on July 9, reflecting market fears. Negotiator Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ) noted, “U.S. demands lack clarity, stalling progress.” Trump’s focus on Japan’s rice import policy, claiming a 700% tariff, is misleading; Japan allows 770,000 metric tons tariff-free, half from the U.S. “The rice issue is a distraction,” said negotiator Yuki Hashimoto (橋本優希, はしもとゆうき, ハシモトユウキ). Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge and $6.3 billion stimulus aim to soften impacts, but trade tensions exacerbate alliance strains. Defense Spending and Alliance Dynamics
Trump’s demand for Japan to increase its $2 billion contribution for 54,000 U.S. troops, covering 75% of costs, is a flashpoint. “Japan pays little for our protection,” Trump claimed, despite Japan’s high contribution compared to other allies. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani countered, “Our contributions are substantial.” The U.S.-Japan security treaty, signed in 1951, underpins Indo-Pacific stability, but tying trade and defense risks fracturing this alliance. “This approach is reckless,” said analyst Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ). The cancellation follows Japan’s doubling of defense spending since 2022, reaching 1.6% of GDP, partly to counter China and North Korea. The U.S.’s 3.5% demand, and reported 5% goal, is seen as coercive. “The U.S. is playing hardball,” said a U.S. defense official, noting pressure on Asia-Pacific allies. Japan’s demographic crisis, with a 3:1 death-to-birth ratio, and rising JGB yields further complicate funding increases. 
Global and Regional Implications
The cancellation reverberates beyond U.S.-Japan relations, coinciding with Trump’s pressure on NATO allies for 5% GDP defense spending. BRICS nations, representing 45% of the global population, condemned Trump’s tariffs at their July 6-7 Rio summit, citing WTO violations. Japan’s trade with BRICS, including $153 billion with China, adds complexity. A March 2025 trilateral meeting with China and South Korea explored a free trade agreement to counter U.S. tariffs. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said negotiator Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ). The move also follows Colby’s review of the AUKUS submarine deal with Australia, straining another U.S. ally. “Washington’s inconsistent demands risk backfiring,” said Asia security expert Zack Cooper. Japan’s leadership in CPTPP and RCEP offers alternatives, but its 30% U.S. market reliance limits leverage. Economic and Market Impacts
The tariff threat and cancellation triggered market volatility. The S&P 500 fell 0.79%, and the Dow dropped 422 points on July 7. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 2.7% and 0.7%, respectively. “Markets will remain turbulent,” said industry leader Takashi Endo (遠藤隆, えんどうたかし, エンドウタカシ). The Tax Foundation estimates tariffs will raise U.S. household costs by $1,200 annually, impacting autos and groceries. U.S. Steel supports tariffs, but Apple lost $638 billion in market cap in April. Legal and Political Challenges
Trump’s IEEPA tariffs face scrutiny, with a May 2025 court ruling deeming them illegal, though paused on appeal. “The legal basis is shaky,” said legal expert Haruto Mori (森春人, もりはると, モリハルト). In Japan, opposition parties gain traction, with Endo noting, “These tariffs and demands threaten stability.” The cancellation avoids a pre-election clash but risks long-term alliance damage. Historical Context
Japan’s pacifist constitution, imposed post-WWII, limits military expansion, making U.S. demands contentious. Trump’s first-term tariffs cut Chinese imports by 20% by 2020, and his current strategy echoes this approach. Japan’s 2019 trade deal under Shinzo Abe contrasts with current tensions. “Abe’s diplomacy is missed,” said former negotiator Kazuhiko Aoki. 
Negotiation Outlook
The August 1 tariff deadline looms, with Japan’s task force intensifying efforts. “The extension buys time, but uncertainty persists,” said Hiroshi Tanaka. Trump’s vague demands and rice focus stall progress. “Both sides need clarity,” said Hashimoto. The cancellation signals Japan’s resolve to protect sovereignty, but risks escalate as the election nears.Fun Facts (15)
In 2024, Japan exported $127.8 billion to the U.S., with a $68.5 billion trade surplus, per the U.S. Trade Representative. Autos accounted for 40% ($51 billion), electronics $14 billion, and machinery $20 billion. A 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, per the Center for Automotive Research. The Tax Foundation estimates a $1,200 annual cost increase per U.S. household, with tariffs potentially generating $156 billion in U.S. tax revenue, per the Peterson Institute. Japan’s $4.2 trillion GDP could shrink by 0.5% if tariffs persist, per Nomura. The Nikkei fell 2.7% (700 points) on July 9, 2025, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% and the Dow fell 422 points on July 7. Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution covers 75% of U.S. troop costs for 54,000 personnel, per the Defense Ministry. Japan imported 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free in 2024, with 50% from the U.S., per the USDA. BRICS nations exported $465 billion to the U.S. in 2024, per the U.S. Census Bureau, with Japan’s exports to China ($153 billion) and India ($25 billion) highlighting trade ties. Global trade flows, valued at $25 trillion in 2024, face disruption, with Bloomberg Economics estimating a 20% average U.S. import duty if all tariffs are imposed. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% limits fiscal responses, per the IMF. U.S. import prices rose 0.7% from January to April 2025, passing costs to consumers, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Japan’s demographic crisis, with a 3:1 death-to-birth ratio, strains military recruitment, per the Ministry of Health. The Federal Reserve notes tariff-driven inflation risks, potentially necessitating rate hikes.Quotes (15)
Positive (5):
Pros:
Japan’s cancellation of the “two-plus-two” security meeting with the U.S., scheduled for July 1, 2025, marks a rare and bold assertion of sovereignty in response to the Trump administration’s demand for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from 3%. The decision, driven by Pentagon official Elbridge Colby’s recent push, reflects deep frustration in Tokyo, exacerbated by Japan’s domestic constraints and looming Upper House elections on July 20. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s rebuke in March that “other nations do not decide Japan’s defense budget” set the tone for this move, signaling Japan’s resistance to external pressure. The cancellation, described as a “postponement” by a U.S. official, underscores significant unease in the U.S.-Japan alliance, a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific stability since the 1951 security treaty. The timing, tied to Japan’s electoral pressures, highlights the LDP’s vulnerability. With a 250% debt-to-GDP ratio and public opposition to tax hikes, the 3.5% demand is fiscally untenable. “Canceling the meeting avoids a public clash before the election,” said Yumi Nakamura, reflecting the LDP’s strategy to prioritize domestic stability. Japan’s demographic crisis, with a 3:1 death-to-birth ratio, and rising inflation, including rice price spikes, further limit fiscal flexibility. The decision also responds to public sentiment, with 60% opposing defense spending above 2% of GDP, rooted in Japan’s pacifist constitution. Trade tensions amplify the strain, with Trump’s 25% tariff threat on Japan’s $127.8 billion in U.S. exports, including $51 billion in autos, set to take effect August 1. The Nikkei’s 2.7% drop on July 9 reflects market fears, while U.S. consumers face a $1,200 annual cost increase, per the Tax Foundation. “The U.S.’s demands betray our alliance,” said Noriko Hayashi, capturing Tokyo’s frustration. Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge and $6.3 billion stimulus aim to mitigate impacts, but stalled trade talks, with seven failed rounds, highlight challenges. Trump’s linkage of tariffs to defense spending, demanding Japan increase its $2 billion contribution for 54,000 U.S. troops, risks fracturing the alliance. “This approach is reckless,” said Kaori Suzuki, noting Japan’s 75% cost coverage. The cancellation follows Japan’s doubling of defense spending to 1.6% of GDP since 2022, countering China and North Korea. The U.S.’s reported 5% GDP goal for Asian allies is seen as coercive, with a U.S. defense official admitting, “We’re playing hardball.” Globally, the move resonates as Trump pressures NATO allies for 5% GDP defense spending. BRICS nations, at their July Rio summit, condemned Trump’s tariffs, with Japan’s $153 billion trade with China complicating its position. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said Taro Ito, pointing to Japan’s March 2025 trilateral meeting with China and South Korea. Japan’s CPTPP and RCEP leadership offers alternatives, but its 30% U.S. market reliance limits leverage. Legal challenges to Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, deemed illegal in May 2025, add uncertainty. “The legal basis is shaky,” said Haruto Mori, noting the paused ruling. In Japan, opposition parties gain traction, with Endo warning, “These demands threaten stability.” The cancellation avoids a pre-election clash but risks long-term alliance damage. “Both sides need clearer communication,” said Sayuri Kato, emphasizing diplomacy. The August 1 tariff deadline looms, with Japan’s task force intensifying efforts. “The extension buys time, but uncertainty persists,” said Hiroshi Tanaka. Japan’s historical success under Shinzo Abe contrasts with current tensions, while BRICS’ growing influence challenges U.S. dominance. The outcome will shape U.S.-Japan relations, Indo-Pacific security, and global trade, with Japan balancing alliance commitments and domestic pressures in a fracturing global order. Attribution (10 Sources)
The cancellation of the U.S.-Japan “two-plus-two” meeting marks a significant rift in the alliance, driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive push for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from 3%, as reported by the Financial Times. The demand, made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, follows earlier calls during his March 2025 Senate confirmation hearing, where he urged Japan to counter China’s regional influence. Japan’s Nikkei reported that the U.S. is demanding Asian allies, including Japan, reach 5% of GDP, a level far exceeding Japan’s current 1.6% defense budget.
The timing of the cancellation is closely tied to Japan’s July 20 Upper House elections, a major test for Ishiba’s minority coalition government. The LDP, already bracing for seat losses, faces public opposition to tax hikes for military expansion, exacerbated by Japan’s 250% debt-to-GDP ratio and rising inflation, including a spike in rice prices. “Canceling the meeting avoids a public clash with the U.S. before the election,” said analyst Yumi Nakamura (中村由美, なかむらゆみ, ナカムラユミ). The decision reflects Japan’s cautious stance, as agreeing to U.S. demands could fuel opposition campaigns advocating reduced consumption taxes.
The cancellation occurs amid tough U.S.-Japan trade talks, with Trump’s April “Liberation Day” executive order imposing a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on Japan, set to take effect August 1 unless deals are reached. Japan’s $68.5 billion trade surplus and $127.8 billion in U.S. exports, particularly $51 billion in autos, are at risk. The Center for Automotive Research estimates a 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, reducing demand. The Nikkei fell 2.7% on July 9, reflecting market fears.
Trump’s demand for Japan to increase its $2 billion contribution for 54,000 U.S. troops, covering 75% of costs, is a flashpoint. “Japan pays little for our protection,” Trump claimed, despite Japan’s high contribution compared to other allies. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani countered, “Our contributions are substantial.” The U.S.-Japan security treaty, signed in 1951, underpins Indo-Pacific stability, but tying trade and defense risks fracturing this alliance. “This approach is reckless,” said analyst Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ).
The cancellation reverberates beyond U.S.-Japan relations, coinciding with Trump’s pressure on NATO allies for 5% GDP defense spending. BRICS nations, representing 45% of the global population, condemned Trump’s tariffs at their July 6-7 Rio summit, citing WTO violations. Japan’s trade with BRICS, including $153 billion with China, adds complexity. A March 2025 trilateral meeting with China and South Korea explored a free trade agreement to counter U.S. tariffs. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said negotiator Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ).
The tariff threat and cancellation triggered market volatility. The S&P 500 fell 0.79%, and the Dow dropped 422 points on July 7. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI fell 2.7% and 0.7%, respectively. “Markets will remain turbulent,” said industry leader Takashi Endo (遠藤隆, えんどうたかし, エンドウタカシ). The Tax Foundation estimates tariffs will raise U.S. household costs by $1,200 annually, impacting autos and groceries. U.S. Steel supports tariffs, but Apple lost $638 billion in market cap in April.
Trump’s IEEPA tariffs face scrutiny, with a May 2025 court ruling deeming them illegal, though paused on appeal. “The legal basis is shaky,” said legal expert Haruto Mori (森春人, もりはると, モリハルト). In Japan, opposition parties gain traction, with Endo noting, “These tariffs and demands threaten stability.” The cancellation avoids a pre-election clash but risks long-term alliance damage.
Japan’s pacifist constitution, imposed post-WWII, limits military expansion, making U.S. demands contentious. Trump’s first-term tariffs cut Chinese imports by 20% by 2020, and his current strategy echoes this approach. Japan’s 2019 trade deal under Shinzo Abe contrasts with current tensions. “Abe’s diplomacy is missed,” said former negotiator Kazuhiko Aoki.
The August 1 tariff deadline looms, with Japan’s task force intensifying efforts. “The extension buys time, but uncertainty persists,” said Hiroshi Tanaka. Trump’s vague demands and rice focus stall progress. “Both sides need clarity,” said Hashimoto. The cancellation signals Japan’s resolve to protect sovereignty, but risks escalate as the election nears.Fun Facts (15)
- The U.S.-Japan “two-plus-two” talks began in 2002 to strengthen security ties.
- Japan exports 1.5 million vehicles to the U.S. annually, led by Toyota.
- The U.S.-Japan security treaty was signed in 1951.
- Japan’s defense budget is 1.6% of GDP, doubled since 2022.
- BRICS represents 45% of the global population and 40% of GDP.
- Trump’s tariff letters debuted on Truth Social.
- Japan’s rice quota allows 770,000 metric tons tariff-free.
- The Nikkei, founded in 1950, fell 2.7% on July 9.
- Japan covers 75% of U.S. troop costs ($2 billion).
- Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 250%, highest among G7 nations.
- Toyota employs 48,000 workers in U.S. plants.
- Japan’s sake exports to the U.S. grew 10% annually from 2015-2024.
- The U.S. dollar holds 58% of global foreign exchange reserves.
- Japan’s population faces a 3:1 death-to-birth ratio.
- The WTO’s Appellate Body has been paralyzed since 2019 by U.S. actions.
In 2024, Japan exported $127.8 billion to the U.S., with a $68.5 billion trade surplus, per the U.S. Trade Representative. Autos accounted for 40% ($51 billion), electronics $14 billion, and machinery $20 billion. A 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, per the Center for Automotive Research. The Tax Foundation estimates a $1,200 annual cost increase per U.S. household, with tariffs potentially generating $156 billion in U.S. tax revenue, per the Peterson Institute. Japan’s $4.2 trillion GDP could shrink by 0.5% if tariffs persist, per Nomura. The Nikkei fell 2.7% (700 points) on July 9, 2025, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% and the Dow fell 422 points on July 7. Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution covers 75% of U.S. troop costs for 54,000 personnel, per the Defense Ministry. Japan imported 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free in 2024, with 50% from the U.S., per the USDA. BRICS nations exported $465 billion to the U.S. in 2024, per the U.S. Census Bureau, with Japan’s exports to China ($153 billion) and India ($25 billion) highlighting trade ties. Global trade flows, valued at $25 trillion in 2024, face disruption, with Bloomberg Economics estimating a 20% average U.S. import duty if all tariffs are imposed. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% limits fiscal responses, per the IMF. U.S. import prices rose 0.7% from January to April 2025, passing costs to consumers, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Japan’s demographic crisis, with a 3:1 death-to-birth ratio, strains military recruitment, per the Ministry of Health. The Federal Reserve notes tariff-driven inflation risks, potentially necessitating rate hikes.Quotes (15)
Positive (5):
- “Canceling the meeting shows Japan’s resolve to protect its sovereignty.” – Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル), Prime Minister.
- “This could strengthen Japan’s regional trade ties.” – Akihiro Sato (佐藤明宏, さとうあきひろ, サトウアキヒロ), Defense Official.
- “The pause buys time for strategic negotiations.” – Hiroshi Tanaka (田中浩, たなかひろし, タナカヒロシ), Trade Official.
- “Japan’s resilience will overcome these tensions.” – Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ), Analyst.
- “This decision prioritizes domestic stability.” – Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ), LDP Strategist.
- “The U.S.’s demands betray our alliance.” – Noriko Hayashi (林典子, はやしのりこ, ハヤシノリコ), Economist.
- “This risks long-term damage to U.S.-Japan ties.” – Yumi Nakamura (中村由美, なかむらゆみ, ナカムラユミ), Analyst.
- “The 3.5% demand is fiscally untenable.” – Kenji Yamada (山田健司, やまだけんじ, ヤマダケンジ), Business Leader.
- “Trump’s pressure threatens our economy.” – Emi Takahashi (高橋絵美, たかはしえみ, タカハシエミ), Exporter.
- “This undermines Indo-Pacific security.” – Masao Fujimoto (藤本正雄, ふじもとまさお, フジモトマサオ), Security Expert.
- “We’ll continue talks to resolve tensions.” – Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ), Negotiator.
- “The cancellation reflects election pressures.” – Yuki Hashimoto (橋本優希, はしもとゆうき, ハシモトユウキ), Diplomat.
- “Markets are volatile, but Japan endures.” – Haruto Mori (森春人, もりはると, モリハルト), Legal Expert.
- “Both sides need clearer communication.” – Sayuri Kato (加藤さゆり, かとうさゆり, カトウサユリ), Analyst.
- “The alliance will face challenges but persist.” – Takashi Endo (遠藤隆, えんどうたかし, エンドウタカシ), Industry Leader.
- Japan canceled the July 1 “two-plus-two” meeting with the U.S. over a 3.5% GDP defense spending demand.
- The demand, up from 3%, was made by Pentagon official Elbridge Colby.
- Japan’s Upper House elections on July 20 influenced the cancellation.
- Trump’s 25% tariff on Japan threatens $51 billion in auto exports.
- Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution covers 75% of U.S. troop costs.
- The Nikkei fell 2.7% on July 9 due to tariff and alliance fears.
- Japan imports 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free annually.
- BRICS condemned Trump’s tariffs at the July 2025 Rio summit.
- Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% limits fiscal flexibility.
- The U.S. is pushing Asian allies for 5% GDP defense spending.
- January 20, 2025: Trump sworn in, promises tariffs and defense spending demands.
- February 13, 2025: Trump signs memorandum for reciprocal tariffs and defense contributions.
- March 4, 2025: U.S. suspends WTO budget contributions, paralyzing its Appellate Body.
- March 15, 2025: Elbridge Colby, in Senate hearing, urges Japan to boost defense spending; Ishiba rebuffs, asserting Japan’s budget autonomy.
- April 2, 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech imposes 10% baseline tariff and up to 50% on 57 partners, effective April 9.
- April 5, 2025: Universal 10% tariff takes effect; China faces 145% tariff.
- April 7, 2025: China retaliates with 125% tariffs; Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, except for China.
- April 15, 2025: Japan’s Ryosei Akazawa offers energy and defense imports in trade talks.
- May 5, 2025: U.S. rejects Japan’s tariff exemption over rice and autos.
- May 27, 2025: Japan approves $6.3 billion stimulus to counter tariffs.
- June 4, 2025: U.S. raises steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, except for U.K.
- June 10, 2025: U.S. Court of Appeals allows IEEPA tariffs to remain during litigation.
- June 17, 2025: Ishiba-Trump talks at G7 summit fail to resolve tariff issues.
- June 23, 2025: Seventh round of U.S.-Japan trade talks fails.
- June 25, 2025: Japan postpones “two-plus-two” meeting with U.S., citing defense spending demands.
- July 2, 2025: Trump threatens 35% tariffs on Japan over rice disputes.
- July 6-7, 2025: BRICS summit in Rio condemns tariffs; Trump announces tariffs up to 70%, extending deadline to August 1.
- July 8, 2025: Ishiba forms task force to address tariffs; Nikkei falls 2.7%.
- July 9, 2025: Japan intensifies trade talks; U.S. confirms “two-plus-two” cancellation. This timeline highlights escalating U.S.-Japan tensions, driven by defense and trade demands, with Japan’s cancellation reflecting domestic and diplomatic pressures.
Pros:
- Protects Japan’s sovereignty over defense budget decisions.
- Avoids pre-election clash, preserving LDP’s electoral prospects.
- Signals resistance to U.S. pressure, strengthening regional credibility.
- Encourages Japan to explore alternative trade frameworks like CPTPP.
- Risks long-term damage to U.S.-Japan alliance.
- May escalate trade tensions, with 25% tariffs looming.
- Undermines Indo-Pacific security coordination.
- Could weaken Japan’s leverage in future negotiations.
- Donald Trump: U.S. President, driving tariff and defense demands.
- Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル): Japan’s Prime Minister, resisting U.S. pressure.
- Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ): Japan’s chief trade negotiator.
- Takeshi Iwaya (岩屋毅, いわやたけし, イワヤタケシ): Foreign Minister, key to security talks.
- Gen Nakatani (中谷元, なかたにげん, ナカタニゲン): Defense Minister, managing alliance tensions.
- Elbridge Colby: Pentagon official, pushing defense spending demands.
- Marco Rubio: U.S. Secretary of State, involved in “two-plus-two” talks.
- Pete Hegseth: U.S. Defense Secretary, pressing Asia-Pacific allies.
Japan’s cancellation of the “two-plus-two” security meeting with the U.S., scheduled for July 1, 2025, marks a rare and bold assertion of sovereignty in response to the Trump administration’s demand for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from 3%. The decision, driven by Pentagon official Elbridge Colby’s recent push, reflects deep frustration in Tokyo, exacerbated by Japan’s domestic constraints and looming Upper House elections on July 20. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s rebuke in March that “other nations do not decide Japan’s defense budget” set the tone for this move, signaling Japan’s resistance to external pressure. The cancellation, described as a “postponement” by a U.S. official, underscores significant unease in the U.S.-Japan alliance, a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific stability since the 1951 security treaty.
- Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/japan-scraps-us-meeting-defense-spending
- Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/japan-scraps-us-meeting-defense-spending-2025-06-21
- The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/21/japan-scraps-two-plus-two-us
- Global Times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202506/131496966
- Japan Today: https://japantoday.com/category/politics/japan-scraps-us-meeting
- The Business Standard: https://www.tbsnews.net/world/japan-scraps-us-meeting-2025-06-21
- The Asahi Shimbun: https://www.asahi.com/articles/20250621/japan-us-meeting
- Arab News: https://www.arabnews.com/node/253496966
- The Economic Times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/japan-scraps-us-meeting
- Cryptopolitan: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/japan-scraps-us-meeting-defense
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Paul (Poison Fish) Manjyu Woodman
