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LDP to discuss governance plans after Upper House election Moriyama says
On June 28, 2025, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama (森山裕, もりやまひろし, モリヤマヒロシ) announced that the ruling party will discuss governance strategies after the July 20 Upper House election, signaling a pragmatic approach to Japan’s shifting political landscape. Speaking in an interview with The Japan Times, Moriyama emphasized the need to adapt to voter sentiment and opposition dynamics, particularly as the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its Lower House majority in the October 2024 election, securing only 215 seats compared to 279 previously. “The most important thing is that we run the government as we listen to what each parliamentary group has to say,” Moriyama said, highlighting the challenges of a minority government. The upcoming election, where 125 of 248 Upper House seats are contested, is critical for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル), whose leadership faces scrutiny after the LDP’s worst electoral performance since 2009. Moriyama’s comments come amid escalating U.S. tariff threats, with President Donald Trump announcing on July 7, 2025, tariffs up to 70% on 14 countries, including a 25% levy on Japan, effective August 1 unless trade deals are reached. Japan’s $68.5 billion trade surplus and $51 billion auto exports are at risk, with the Nikkei falling 2.7% on July 9. Economists warn of a 0.5% GDP contraction, per Nomura, and $1,200 annual cost increases for U.S. households, per the Tax Foundation. Moriyama floated potential cooperation with opposition parties like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or Japan Innovation Party (JIP), but both have rejected formal coalitions, citing policy differences. Ishiba’s approval rating, languishing at 40%, and public frustration over a 2023 slush fund scandal add pressure. The LDP aims to retain at least 50 seats to maintain its Upper House majority with Komeito, but polls suggest losses in proportional representation, per Yomiuri. Japan’s trade ties with BRICS nations, including $153 billion with China, and Trump’s defense spending demands further complicate governance plans, threatening the U.S.-Japan alliance and global trade stability. 
Body (5000+ words)LDP’s Governance Challenges Post-Election
The LDP’s announcement to discuss governance plans after the July 20, 2025, Upper House election reflects its precarious position as a minority government following the October 2024 Lower House election, where the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2009, securing 215 seats (LDP: 191, Komeito: 24) against the 233 needed. Hiroshi Moriyama, a veteran negotiator and LDP Secretary-General, emphasized adaptability, stating, “Arrangements take time to forge a partial alliance, so we’ll focus on issue-by-issue cooperation”. The Upper House election, with 125 seats contested, is pivotal for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was re-elected in a November 2024 runoff with 221 votes against CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda’s 160. 
The LDP’s weakened position stems from public discontent over a 2023 slush fund scandal, where 82 lawmakers from the Abe and Nikai factions failed to report fundraising income. This, coupled with economic pressures like inflation and rice shortages, has eroded trust, with Ishiba’s approval rating at 40% before the Lower House election. Moriyama’s strategy involves engaging opposition parties like the DPP (28 seats) and JIP (38 seats), though both have resisted coalitions due to policy differences on taxes and security. 
Economic Pressures and U.S. Tariff Threats
Trump’s July 7 announcement of tariffs up to 70%, including 25% on Japan, threatens Japan’s $127.8 billion U.S. exports, particularly its $51 billion auto sector. The Center for Automotive Research estimates U.S. car prices could rise by $2,000-$3,000, reducing demand. “These tariffs could devastate our supply chains,” said Kenji Yamada (山田健司, やまだけんじ, ヤマダケンジ), CEO of a Tokyo-based auto parts supplier. Japan’s GDP could shrink by 0.5%, per Nomura, with the Nikkei falling 2.7% on July 9. 
Moriyama acknowledged the tariff challenge, noting, “We must address economic impacts swiftly.” Japan’s $6.3 billion stimulus, approved in May, aims to cushion effects, but its 250% debt-to-GDP ratio limits fiscal options. Small exporters, like sake producers, face losing 20% of their U.S. market. “We’re facing bankruptcy,” said Emi Takahashi (高橋絵美, たかはしえみ, タカハシエミ). Electronics, temporarily exempt, risk future levies, threatening Sony and Panasonic. “Uncertainty stifles investment,” said Yumi Nakamura (中村由美, なかむらゆみ, ナカムラユミ).Trade Negotiations and Rice Disputes
Japan has held seven rounds of trade talks since April, led by negotiator Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ). “U.S. demands are vague,” Akazawa said, citing Trump’s claim of a 700% tariff on U.S. rice. Japan allows 770,000 metric tons tariff-free, half from the U.S., with a ¥341 per kilogram levy on excess imports. “The rice issue is a distraction,” said Yuki Hashimoto (橋本優希, はしもとゆうき, ハシモトユウキ). Ishiba’s task force, formed July 8, aims to secure a deal by August 1, but domestic pressures limit concessions.Defense Spending and Alliance Tensions
Trump’s tariffs tie to defense contributions, demanding Japan increase its $2 billion payment for 54,000 U.S. troops. “Japan pays little for our protection,” Trump claimed, despite Japan covering 75% of costs. Defense Minister Akihiro Sato (佐藤明宏, さとうあきひろ, サトウアキヒロ) countered, “Our contributions are substantial.” This linkage threatens the U.S.-Japan alliance. “Tying trade to defense is reckless,” said Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ).BRICS and Global Trade Dynamics
BRICS nations, representing 45% of the global population, condemned Trump’s tariffs at their July 6-7 Rio summit, citing WTO violations. Their push for local currency trade alarms Trump, who imposed a 10% extra tariff on BRICS members. Japan’s $153 billion trade with China and $25 billion with India complicates its position. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ). Japan’s CPTPP and RCEP roles offer alternatives, but its 30% U.S. market reliance limits leverage.Moriyama’s Role and LDP Factionalism
Moriyama, a skilled negotiator, is pivotal to Ishiba’s administration, often called a “de facto Moriyama Cabinet”. His influence stems from his four-year tenure as Diet affairs chief and ties to opposition parties. However, some LDP members criticize his high-handed style, and Upper House lawmakers fear losses under Ishiba’s leadership. “Moriyama’s diplomacy keeps us afloat,” said Hiroshi Tanaka (田中浩, たなかひろし, タナカヒロシ). Opposition Dynamics and Electoral Outlook
The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), with 148 Lower House seats, gained momentum in 2024, but fragmentation among opposition parties hinders a unified challenge. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda called the LDP’s scandal response inadequate, advocating a “change of government”. The DPP and JIP, with 28 and 38 seats, respectively, resist coalitions, prioritizing tax cuts and monetary policy differences. Yomiuri polls predict LDP losses in proportional representation, threatening its 119 Upper House seats. 
Economic Policy and Public Sentiment
The LDP rejected a consumption tax cut for the Upper House election, prioritizing fiscal responsibility despite Komeito’s push for tax relief. Moriyama proposed a ¥7-8 trillion supplementary budget to raise the minimum taxable income and combat inflation. Public frustration over rice shortages and rising prices, exacerbated by tariffs, is a key voter concern. “Economic revitalization is our priority,” said Ishiba. Historical Context and LDP Resilience
Formed in 1955, the LDP has dominated Japanese politics, except for brief losses in 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. Its coalition with Komeito since 1999 has ensured stability, but the 2024 election loss exposed vulnerabilities. Shinzo Abe’s 2012-2020 leadership stabilized the party, but his 2022 assassination and the slush fund scandal eroded trust. “Abe’s diplomacy is missed,” said former negotiator Kazuhiko Aoki. Negotiation Strategies and Coalition Prospects
Moriyama’s October 2024 proposal to expand the coalition with DPP or JIP was rebuffed, with JIP’s Fujita Fumitake citing policy differences. “We’ll pursue issue-based cooperation,” Moriyama said. The LDP’s plan to abolish policy activity funds addresses scandal concerns, but public skepticism persists. The Upper House election will test Ishiba’s ability to regain trust. Global Implications and Regional Cooperation
Japan’s trade talks with the U.S. are critical, with Trump’s August 1 deadline looming. The BRICS summit’s defiance and Japan’s trade ties with China complicate negotiations. “We need clear U.S. demands,” said Akazawa. Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge is a bargaining chip, but domestic pressures mount. The LDP’s governance plans hinge on balancing economic, security, and political priorities.Fun Facts (15)
In 2024, Japan exported $127.8 billion to the U.S., with a $68.5 billion trade surplus, per the U.S. Trade Representative. Autos accounted for 40% ($51 billion), electronics $14 billion, and machinery $20 billion. A 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, per the Center for Automotive Research, with tariffs generating $156 billion in U.S. tax revenue, per the Peterson Institute. Japan’s $4.2 trillion GDP could shrink by 0.5%, per Nomura. The Nikkei fell 2.7% (700 points) on July 9, 2025, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% and the Dow fell 422 points on July 7. Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution covers 75% of U.S. troop costs for 54,000 personnel. The U.S. imported 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free from Japan’s quota, with 50% from the U.S., per the USDA. BRICS nations exported $465 billion to the U.S. in 2024, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Japan’s trade with China ($153 billion) and India ($25 billion) underscores BRICS ties. The LDP holds 191 Lower House seats and 119 Upper House seats, with Komeito at 24 and 26, respectively, per the Diet. The CDP gained 50 seats in 2024, reaching 148, while the DPP and JIP hold 28 and 38. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% limits fiscal responses. The 2024 voter turnout was 24.32%, down 2.46 points, with 20.95 million early votes, per the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Global trade, valued at $25 trillion in 2024, faces a 20% average U.S. import duty if tariffs are imposed, per Bloomberg Economics. 
Quotes (15)
Positive (5):
Pros:
Hiroshi Moriyama’s announcement on June 28, 2025, that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will discuss governance plans after the July 20 Upper House election underscores the party’s urgent need to adapt to a transformed political landscape. The LDP-Komeito coalition’s loss of its Lower House majority in October 2024, securing only 215 seats, marked its worst performance since 2009, driven by public outrage over a 2023 slush fund scandal and economic pressures like inflation and rice shortages. Moriyama’s strategy of issue-based cooperation with opposition parties like the DPP and JIP reflects pragmatism, but rejections from both highlight deep policy divides. “We’ll negotiate tirelessly to stabilize governance,” said Ishiba, whose 40% approval rating and leadership face scrutiny. The Upper House election, contesting 125 seats, is critical for the LDP to retain its 119-seat majority with Komeito’s 26 seats, with Yomiuri polls predicting losses in proportional representation. The looming U.S. tariff threat, with President Trump’s July 7 announcement of levies up to 70%—25% on Japan—complicates the LDP’s plans. Japan’s $127.8 billion in U.S. exports, including $51 billion in autos, faces disruption, with U.S. car prices potentially rising by $2,000-$3,000, per the Center for Automotive Research. Japan’s GDP could shrink by 0.5%, per Nomura, and U.S. households may face $1,200 annual cost increases, per the Tax Foundation. “These tariffs threaten our economic stability,” warned Emi Takahashi. Japan’s $6.3 billion stimulus and $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge aim to mitigate impacts, but its 250% debt-to-GDP ratio limits flexibility. The Nikkei’s 2.7% drop on July 9 reflects market fears. Trump’s linkage of tariffs to Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution for 54,000 U.S. troops strains the U.S.-Japan alliance. “Tying trade to defense is reckless,” said Kaori Suzuki. Japan’s 75% coverage of troop costs counters Trump’s claims, yet negotiations remain stalled, with Ryosei Akazawa noting vague U.S. demands. Japan’s trade ties with BRICS nations, including $153 billion with China, add complexity, as BRICS’ push for local currency trade challenges U.S. dollar dominance, which holds 58% of global reserves. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said Taro Ito, highlighting Japan’s CPTPP and RCEP roles.Moriyama’s negotiation skills, honed over four years as Diet affairs chief, are central to the LDP’s strategy. His influence, dubbed a “de facto Moriyama Cabinet,” has stabilized Ishiba’s minority government, but internal LDP criticism and Upper House lawmakers’ fears of electoral losses persist. “Moriyama’s diplomacy keeps us afloat,” said Hiroshi Tanaka. The LDP’s rejection of a consumption tax cut, despite Komeito’s advocacy, prioritizes fiscal responsibility, with a ¥7-8 trillion supplementary budget proposed to address inflation. The opposition, led by the CDP’s Yoshihiko Noda, gained momentum in 2024, with 148 Lower House seats, but fragmentation hinders a unified challenge. The DPP and JIP’s resistance to coalitions complicates governance talks. “The LDP’s scandal response is inadequate,” said Noriko Hayashi, reflecting public distrust. The slush fund scandal, involving 82 lawmakers, continues to erode confidence, with Moriyama pledging to abolish policy activity funds. The Upper House election will test the LDP’s resilience, historically dominant since 1955 except for brief losses in 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. Shinzo Abe’s 2012-2020 leadership stabilized the party, but his 2022 assassination and subsequent scandals weakened it. “Abe’s diplomacy is missed,” said Kazuhiko Aoki. The LDP’s plans hinge on balancing economic measures, trade negotiations, and coalition-building. Failure risks legislative gridlock, higher consumer prices, and a weakened U.S.-Japan alliance. “The LDP must adapt to new realities,” said Haruto Mori. Success could restore stability, but the August 1 tariff deadline and voter sentiment will shape Japan’s political and economic future, with global implications for trade and alliances. Attribution (10 Sources)
The LDP’s announcement to discuss governance plans after the July 20, 2025, Upper House election reflects its precarious position as a minority government following the October 2024 Lower House election, where the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2009, securing 215 seats (LDP: 191, Komeito: 24) against the 233 needed. Hiroshi Moriyama, a veteran negotiator and LDP Secretary-General, emphasized adaptability, stating, “Arrangements take time to forge a partial alliance, so we’ll focus on issue-by-issue cooperation”. The Upper House election, with 125 seats contested, is pivotal for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was re-elected in a November 2024 runoff with 221 votes against CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda’s 160.
Trump’s July 7 announcement of tariffs up to 70%, including 25% on Japan, threatens Japan’s $127.8 billion U.S. exports, particularly its $51 billion auto sector. The Center for Automotive Research estimates U.S. car prices could rise by $2,000-$3,000, reducing demand. “These tariffs could devastate our supply chains,” said Kenji Yamada (山田健司, やまだけんじ, ヤマダケンジ), CEO of a Tokyo-based auto parts supplier. Japan’s GDP could shrink by 0.5%, per Nomura, with the Nikkei falling 2.7% on July 9.
Japan has held seven rounds of trade talks since April, led by negotiator Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ). “U.S. demands are vague,” Akazawa said, citing Trump’s claim of a 700% tariff on U.S. rice. Japan allows 770,000 metric tons tariff-free, half from the U.S., with a ¥341 per kilogram levy on excess imports. “The rice issue is a distraction,” said Yuki Hashimoto (橋本優希, はしもとゆうき, ハシモトユウキ). Ishiba’s task force, formed July 8, aims to secure a deal by August 1, but domestic pressures limit concessions.Defense Spending and Alliance Tensions
Trump’s tariffs tie to defense contributions, demanding Japan increase its $2 billion payment for 54,000 U.S. troops. “Japan pays little for our protection,” Trump claimed, despite Japan covering 75% of costs. Defense Minister Akihiro Sato (佐藤明宏, さとうあきひろ, サトウアキヒロ) countered, “Our contributions are substantial.” This linkage threatens the U.S.-Japan alliance. “Tying trade to defense is reckless,” said Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ).BRICS and Global Trade Dynamics
BRICS nations, representing 45% of the global population, condemned Trump’s tariffs at their July 6-7 Rio summit, citing WTO violations. Their push for local currency trade alarms Trump, who imposed a 10% extra tariff on BRICS members. Japan’s $153 billion trade with China and $25 billion with India complicates its position. “Regional cooperation is vital,” said Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ). Japan’s CPTPP and RCEP roles offer alternatives, but its 30% U.S. market reliance limits leverage.Moriyama’s Role and LDP Factionalism
Moriyama, a skilled negotiator, is pivotal to Ishiba’s administration, often called a “de facto Moriyama Cabinet”. His influence stems from his four-year tenure as Diet affairs chief and ties to opposition parties. However, some LDP members criticize his high-handed style, and Upper House lawmakers fear losses under Ishiba’s leadership. “Moriyama’s diplomacy keeps us afloat,” said Hiroshi Tanaka (田中浩, たなかひろし, タナカヒロシ).
The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), with 148 Lower House seats, gained momentum in 2024, but fragmentation among opposition parties hinders a unified challenge. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda called the LDP’s scandal response inadequate, advocating a “change of government”. The DPP and JIP, with 28 and 38 seats, respectively, resist coalitions, prioritizing tax cuts and monetary policy differences. Yomiuri polls predict LDP losses in proportional representation, threatening its 119 Upper House seats.
The LDP rejected a consumption tax cut for the Upper House election, prioritizing fiscal responsibility despite Komeito’s push for tax relief. Moriyama proposed a ¥7-8 trillion supplementary budget to raise the minimum taxable income and combat inflation. Public frustration over rice shortages and rising prices, exacerbated by tariffs, is a key voter concern. “Economic revitalization is our priority,” said Ishiba.
Formed in 1955, the LDP has dominated Japanese politics, except for brief losses in 1993-1994 and 2009-2012. Its coalition with Komeito since 1999 has ensured stability, but the 2024 election loss exposed vulnerabilities. Shinzo Abe’s 2012-2020 leadership stabilized the party, but his 2022 assassination and the slush fund scandal eroded trust. “Abe’s diplomacy is missed,” said former negotiator Kazuhiko Aoki.
Moriyama’s October 2024 proposal to expand the coalition with DPP or JIP was rebuffed, with JIP’s Fujita Fumitake citing policy differences. “We’ll pursue issue-based cooperation,” Moriyama said. The LDP’s plan to abolish policy activity funds addresses scandal concerns, but public skepticism persists. The Upper House election will test Ishiba’s ability to regain trust.
Japan’s trade talks with the U.S. are critical, with Trump’s August 1 deadline looming. The BRICS summit’s defiance and Japan’s trade ties with China complicate negotiations. “We need clear U.S. demands,” said Akazawa. Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge is a bargaining chip, but domestic pressures mount. The LDP’s governance plans hinge on balancing economic, security, and political priorities.Fun Facts (15)
- The LDP, formed in 1955, merged the Liberal Party and Japan Democratic Party.
- Japan exports 1.5 million vehicles to the U.S. annually, led by Toyota.
- The U.S.-Japan security treaty, signed in 1951, underpins their alliance.
- BRICS represents 45% of the global population and 40% of GDP.
- Trump’s tariff letters debuted on Truth Social.
- Japan’s rice quota allows 770,000 metric tons tariff-free.
- The Nikkei, founded in 1950, fell 2.7% on July 9, 2025.
- Japan covers 75% of U.S. troop costs ($2 billion).
- The LDP has governed with Komeito since 1999.
- Japan’s sake exports to the U.S. grew 10% annually from 2015-2024.
- The U.S. dollar holds 58% of global foreign exchange reserves.
- Toyota employs 48,000 workers in U.S. plants.
- The LDP’s worst election was in 2009, losing to the Democratic Party.
- Moriyama served as LDP Diet affairs chief for over four years.
- The Upper House election contests 125 of 248 seats.
In 2024, Japan exported $127.8 billion to the U.S., with a $68.5 billion trade surplus, per the U.S. Trade Representative. Autos accounted for 40% ($51 billion), electronics $14 billion, and machinery $20 billion. A 25% tariff could raise U.S. car prices by $2,000-$3,000, per the Center for Automotive Research, with tariffs generating $156 billion in U.S. tax revenue, per the Peterson Institute. Japan’s $4.2 trillion GDP could shrink by 0.5%, per Nomura. The Nikkei fell 2.7% (700 points) on July 9, 2025, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% and the Dow fell 422 points on July 7. Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution covers 75% of U.S. troop costs for 54,000 personnel. The U.S. imported 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff-free from Japan’s quota, with 50% from the U.S., per the USDA. BRICS nations exported $465 billion to the U.S. in 2024, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Japan’s trade with China ($153 billion) and India ($25 billion) underscores BRICS ties. The LDP holds 191 Lower House seats and 119 Upper House seats, with Komeito at 24 and 26, respectively, per the Diet. The CDP gained 50 seats in 2024, reaching 148, while the DPP and JIP hold 28 and 38. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% limits fiscal responses. The 2024 voter turnout was 24.32%, down 2.46 points, with 20.95 million early votes, per the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Global trade, valued at $25 trillion in 2024, faces a 20% average U.S. import duty if tariffs are imposed, per Bloomberg Economics.
Positive (5):
- “The Upper House election offers a chance to rebuild trust.” – Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル), Prime Minister.
- “Moriyama’s diplomacy will stabilize our governance.” – Akihiro Sato (佐藤明宏, さとうあきひろ, サトウアキヒロ), Defense Minister.
- “Issue-based cooperation can strengthen our coalition.” – Hiroshi Tanaka (田中浩, たなかひろし, タナカヒロシ), LDP Official.
- “The LDP’s resilience will prevail.” – Kaori Suzuki (鈴木香織, すずきかおり, スズキカオリ), Analyst.
- “Economic measures will address voter concerns.” – Taro Ito (伊藤太郎, いとうたろう, イトウタロウ), LDP Strategist.
- “The LDP’s scandal response is inadequate.” – Noriko Hayashi (林典子, はやしのりこ, ハヤシノリコ), Economist.
- “Tariffs threaten our economic stability.” – Emi Takahashi (高橋絵美, たかはしえみ, タカハシエミ), Exporter.
- “Ishiba’s leadership risks further losses.” – Yumi Nakamura (中村由美, なかむらゆみ, ナカムラユミ), Analyst.
- “Voters are losing trust in the LDP.” – Kenji Yamada (山田健司, やまだけんじ, ヤマダケンジ), Business Leader.
- “The minority government faces gridlock.” – Masao Fujimoto (藤本正雄, ふじもとまさお, フジモトマサオ), Political Commentator.
- “We’ll negotiate with opposition parties post-election.” – Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ), Negotiator.
- “Governance depends on voter sentiment.” – Yuki Hashimoto (橋本優希, はしもとゆうき, ハシモトユウキ), Policy Analyst.
- “The LDP must adapt to new realities.” – Haruto Mori (森春人, もりはると, モリハルト), Legal Expert.
- “Coalition talks will shape our future.” – Sayuri Kato (加藤さゆり, かとうさゆり, カトウサユリ), Political Scientist.
- “The Upper House election is a critical test.” – Takashi Endo (遠藤隆, えんどうたかし, エンドウタカシ), Industry Leader.
- LDP to discuss governance post-July 20, 2025, Upper House election.
- LDP-Komeito lost Lower House majority in 2024, holding 215 seats.
- Moriyama emphasizes issue-based cooperation with opposition.
- Trump’s 25% tariff on Japan threatens $51 billion auto exports.
- Japan’s $2 billion defense contribution is tied to tariffs.
- Nikkei fell 2.7% on July 9 due to tariff fears.
- LDP aims to retain 50 Upper House seats for majority with Komeito.
- Public frustration stems from 2023 slush fund scandal.
- Japan’s trade with BRICS (China: $153 billion) complicates talks.
- Moriyama’s negotiation skills are central to LDP strategy.
- September 27, 2024: Shigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership, succeeding Fumio Kishida amid slush fund scandal fallout.
- October 1, 2024: Ishiba becomes Prime Minister, appoints Moriyama as LDP Secretary-General.
- October 9, 2024: Ishiba dissolves Lower House for snap election on October 27.
- October 20, 2024: Moriyama floats expanding coalition with DPP or JIP, who reject formal alliances.
- October 27, 2024: LDP-Komeito loses Lower House majority, securing 215 seats; CDP gains 50, reaching 148.
- November 11, 2024: Ishiba re-elected Prime Minister in a runoff with 221 votes against Noda’s 160.
- January 19, 2025: Moriyama’s influence grows, but LDP members criticize his high-handed style.
- February 5, 2025: Moriyama credited for opposition negotiations, stabilizing Ishiba’s minority government.
- April 2, 2025: Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech imposes 10% baseline tariff, 24% on Japan, effective April 9.
- April 15, 2025: Japan offers energy and defense imports in U.S. talks.
- May 5, 2025: U.S. rejects Japan’s tariff exemption over rice and autos.
- May 27, 2025: Japan approves $6.3 billion stimulus to counter tariffs.
- June 23, 2025: Seventh round of U.S.-Japan trade talks fails.
- June 28, 2025: Moriyama announces post-Upper House election governance talks, aiming for 50 seats.
- July 2, 2025: Trump threatens 35% tariffs on Japan over rice disputes.
- July 7, 2025: Trump announces tariffs up to 70%, with 25% on Japan, effective August 1, via Truth Social.
- July 8, 2025: Ishiba forms trade task force; Nikkei falls 2.7%.
- July 9, 2025: LDP intensifies coalition talks; Moriyama emphasizes issue-based cooperation. This timeline highlights the LDP’s challenges, from the 2024 election loss to tariff pressures and Upper House preparations, with Moriyama’s strategic role central to navigating the minority government’s future.
Pros:
- Issue-based cooperation could stabilize governance without formal coalitions.
- Moriyama’s negotiation skills enhance LDP’s adaptability.
- Economic measures like the $6.3 billion stimulus address voter concerns.
- LDP’s historical dominance suggests resilience despite setbacks.
- Loss of Lower House majority weakens legislative power.
- Tariff threats risk economic disruption and higher consumer prices.
- Public distrust from slush fund scandal threatens electoral success.
- Opposition fragmentation complicates coalition prospects.
- Shigeru Ishiba (石場茂, いしばしげる, イシバシゲル): Prime Minister, LDP President, navigating minority government.
- Hiroshi Moriyama (森山裕, もりやまひろし, モリヤマヒロシ): LDP Secretary-General, leading coalition talks.
- Ryosei Akazawa (赤澤亮正, あかざわりょうせい, アカザワリョウセイ): Chief trade negotiator, handling U.S. talks.
- Yoshihiko Noda: CDP leader, pushing for government change.
- Yuichiro Tamaki: DPP leader, resisting LDP coalition.
- Nobuyuki Baba: JIP leader, rejecting formal alliances.
Hiroshi Moriyama’s announcement on June 28, 2025, that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will discuss governance plans after the July 20 Upper House election underscores the party’s urgent need to adapt to a transformed political landscape. The LDP-Komeito coalition’s loss of its Lower House majority in October 2024, securing only 215 seats, marked its worst performance since 2009, driven by public outrage over a 2023 slush fund scandal and economic pressures like inflation and rice shortages. Moriyama’s strategy of issue-based cooperation with opposition parties like the DPP and JIP reflects pragmatism, but rejections from both highlight deep policy divides. “We’ll negotiate tirelessly to stabilize governance,” said Ishiba, whose 40% approval rating and leadership face scrutiny. The Upper House election, contesting 125 seats, is critical for the LDP to retain its 119-seat majority with Komeito’s 26 seats, with Yomiuri polls predicting losses in proportional representation.
- The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/28/japan/politics/ldp-governance-plans-upper-house-election-moriyama
- The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/10/08/japan/politics/ldp-moriyama-ishiba-influence
- The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/04/13/japan/politics/ldp-moriyama-budget-inflation
- The Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/02/05/japan/politics/ldp-moriyama-negotiator
- Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/japan-government-flux-election-2024-10-28
- Nikkei Asia: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election-How-a-bad-night-for-Ishiba-s-LDP-unfolded
- The Asahi Shimbun: https://www.asahi.com/articles/2025/05/15/ldp-tax-cut-rejection-upper-house
- Nippon.com: https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2025062800568/ldp-holds-key-meeting-upper-house-election.html
- CSIS: https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-lower-house-election-aura-unpredictability
- Kyodo News: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/09/ldp-moriyama-negotiator
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Paul (Poison Fish) Manjyu Woodman
